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10.1098/rsif.2020.0970

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1098/rsif.2020.0970
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33849340!8086933!33849340
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33849340      J+R+Soc+Interface 2021 ; 18 (177): 20200970
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  • School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies #MMPMID33849340
  • Head JR; Andrejko KL; Cheng Q; Collender PA; Phillips S; Boser A; Heaney AK; Hoover CM; Wu SL; Northrup GR; Click K; Bardach NS; Lewnard JA; Remais JV
  • J R Soc Interface 2021[Apr]; 18 (177): 20200970 PMID33849340show ga
  • School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K-12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: -985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |Policy[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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