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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Health+Care+Manag+Sci 2021 ; 24 (2): 356-374 Nephropedia Template TP
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Balancing scarce hospital resources during the COVID-19 pandemic using discrete-event simulation #MMPMID33835338
Melman GJ; Parlikad AK; Cameron EAB
Health Care Manag Sci 2021[Jun]; 24 (2): 356-374 PMID33835338show ga
COVID-19 has disrupted healthcare operations and resulted in large-scale cancellations of elective surgery. Hospitals throughout the world made life-altering resource allocation decisions and prioritised the care of COVID-19 patients. Without effective models to evaluate resource allocation strategies encompassing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 care, hospitals face the risk of making sub-optimal local resource allocation decisions. A discrete-event-simulation model is proposed in this paper to describe COVID-19, elective surgery, and emergency surgery patient flows. COVID-19-specific patient flows and a surgical patient flow network were constructed based on data of 475 COVID-19 patients and 28,831 non-COVID-19 patients in Addenbrooke's hospital in the UK. The model enabled the evaluation of three resource allocation strategies, for two COVID-19 wave scenarios: proactive cancellation of elective surgery, reactive cancellation of elective surgery, and ring-fencing operating theatre capacity. The results suggest that a ring-fencing strategy outperforms the other strategies, regardless of the COVID-19 scenario, in terms of total direct deaths and the number of surgeries performed. However, this does come at the cost of 50% more critical care rejections. In terms of aggregate hospital performance, a reactive cancellation strategy prioritising COVID-19 is no longer favourable if more than 7.3% of elective surgeries can be considered life-saving. Additionally, the model demonstrates the impact of timely hospital preparation and staff availability, on the ability to treat patients during a pandemic. The model can aid hospitals worldwide during pandemics and disasters, to evaluate their resource allocation strategies and identify the effect of redefining the prioritisation of patients.
|*COVID-19[MESH]
|*Efficiency, Organizational[MESH]
|*Hospitals[MESH]
|*Pandemics[MESH]
|*Resource Allocation/methods[MESH]
|Critical Care[MESH]
|Elective Surgical Procedures[MESH]
|Equipment and Supplies, Hospital/*supply & distribution[MESH]