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10.1136/rmdopen-2021-001638

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1136/rmdopen-2021-001638
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33790049      RMD+Open 2021 ; 7 (1): ä
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  • COVID-19-induced hyperinflammation, immunosuppression, recovery and survival: how causal inference may help draw robust conclusions #MMPMID33790049
  • Landewe RBM; Ramiro S; Mostard RLM
  • RMD Open 2021[Mar]; 7 (1): ä PMID33790049show ga
  • BACKGROUND: The CHIC study (COVID-19 High-intensity Immunosuppression in Cytokine storm syndrome) is a quasi-experimental treatment study exploring immunosuppressive treatment versus supportive treatment only in patients with COVID-19 with life-threatening hyperinflammation. Causal inference provides a means of investigating causality in non-randomised experiments. Here we report 14-day improvement as well as 30-day and 90-day mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The first 86 patients (period 1) received optimal supportive care only; the second 86 patients (period 2) received methylprednisolone and (if necessary) tocilizumab, in addition to optimal supportive care. The main outcomes were 14-day clinical improvement and 30-day and 90-day survival. An 80% decline in C reactive protein (CRP) was recorded on or before day 13 (CRP >100 mg/L was an inclusion criterion). Non-linear mediation analysis was performed to decompose CRP-mediated effects of immunosuppression (defined as natural indirect effects) and non-CRP-mediated effects attributable to natural prognostic differences between periods (defined as natural direct effects). RESULTS: The natural direct (non-CRP-mediated) effects for period 2 versus period 1 showed an OR of 1.38 (38% better) for 14-day improvement and an OR of 1.16 (16% better) for 30-day and 90-day survival. The natural indirect (CRP-mediated) effects for period 2 showed an OR of 2.27 (127% better) for 14-day improvement, an OR of 1.60 (60% better) for 30-day survival and an OR of 1.49 (49% better) for 90-day survival. The number needed to treat was 5 for 14-day improvement, 9 for survival on day 30, and 10 for survival on day 90. CONCLUSION: Causal inference with non-linear mediation analysis further substantiates the claim that a brief but intensive treatment with immunosuppressants in patients with COVID-19 and systemic hyperinflammation adds to rapid recovery and saves lives. Causal inference is an alternative to conventional trial analysis, when randomised controlled trials are considered unethical, unfeasible or impracticable.
  • |*COVID-19 Drug Treatment[MESH]
  • |Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/*therapeutic use[MESH]
  • |C-Reactive Protein/*immunology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/immunology[MESH]
  • |Causality[MESH]
  • |Cytokine Release Syndrome/*drug therapy/immunology[MESH]
  • |Glucocorticoids/*therapeutic use[MESH]
  • |Historically Controlled Study[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Immunosuppressive Agents/*therapeutic use[MESH]
  • |Inflammation/immunology[MESH]
  • |Mediation Analysis[MESH]
  • |Methylprednisolone/*therapeutic use[MESH]
  • |Mortality[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Survival Rate[MESH]


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