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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Phys+Biol 2021 ; 18 (4): ä Nephropedia Template TP
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SEIR order parameters and eigenvectors of the three stages of completed COVID-19 epidemics: with an illustration for Thailand January to May 2020 #MMPMID33789256
Frank TD; Chiangga S
Phys Biol 2021[May]; 18 (4): ä PMID33789256show ga
By end of October 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken a tragic toll of 1150 000 lives and this number is expected to increase. Despite the pandemic is raging in most parts of the world, in a few countries COVID-19 epidemics subsided due to successful implementations of intervention measures. A unifying perspective of the beginnings, middle stages, and endings of such completed COVID-19 epidemics is developed based on the order parameter and eigenvalue concepts of nonlinear physics, in general, and synergetics, in particular. To this end, a standard susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is used. It is shown that COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks follow a suitably defined SEIR order parameter. Intervention measures switch the eigenvalue of the order parameter from a positive to a negative value, and in doing so, stabilize the COVID-19 disease-free state. The subsiding of COVID-19 epidemics eventually follows the remnant of the order parameter of the infection dynamical system. These considerations are illustrated for the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand from January to May 2020. The decay of effective contact rates throughout the three epidemic stages is demonstrated. Evidence for the sign-switching of the dominant eigenvalue is given and the order parameter and its stage-3 remnant are identified. The presumed impacts of interventions measures implemented in Thailand are discussed in this context.