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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 227.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Nature 2021 ; 593 (7858): 266-269 Nephropedia Template TP
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Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B 1 1 7 in England #MMPMID33767447
Volz E; Mishra S; Chand M; Barrett JC; Johnson R; Geidelberg L; Hinsley WR; Laydon DJ; Dabrera G; O'Toole A; Amato R; Ragonnet-Cronin M; Harrison I; Jackson B; Ariani CV; Boyd O; Loman NJ; McCrone JT; Goncalves S; Jorgensen D; Myers R; Hill V; Jackson DK; Gaythorpe K; Groves N; Sillitoe J; Kwiatkowski DP; Flaxman S; Ratmann O; Bhatt S; Hopkins S; Gandy A; Rambaut A; Ferguson NM
Nature 2021[May]; 593 (7858): 266-269 PMID33767447show ga
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England(1), was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 2020(2). Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Nature 2021 ; 593 (7858): 266-269
