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10.1017/S0950268821000649 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/S0950268821000649 33762052!8027562!33762052     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Epidemiol+Infect 2021 ; 149 (ä): e80 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33762052|t=2021. A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level |pdf=|usr=}}{{33762052}} gab.com Text A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level JO: Epidemiol Infect http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33762052 #FOAvip This study aimed to identify an appropriate simple mathematical model to fit the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the national level for the early portion of the pandemic, before significant public health interventions could be enacted. The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic over time in 28 countries was analysed and fit to several simple rate models. The resulting model parameters were used to extrapolate projections for more recent data. While the Gompertz growth model (mean R2 = 0.998) best fit the current data, uncertainties in the eventual case limit introduced significant model errors. However, the quadratic rate model (mean R2 = 0.992) fit the current data best for 25 (89%) countries as determined by R2 values of the remaining models. Projection to the future using the simple quadratic model accurately forecast the number of future total number of cases 50% of the time up to 10 days in advance. Extrapolation to the future with the simple exponential model significantly overpredicted the total number of future cases. These results demonstrate that accurate future predictions of the case load in a given country can be made using this very simple model. Twit Text FOAVip A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level ????Epidemiol Infect http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33762052 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33762052 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33762052}}</ref> A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level #MMPMID33762052 Blanco N; Stafford KA; Lavoie MC; Brandenburg A; Gorna MW; Merski M Epidemiol Infect 2021[Mar]; 149 (ä): e80 PMID33762052show ga This study aimed to identify an appropriate simple mathematical model to fit the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the national level for the early portion of the pandemic, before significant public health interventions could be enacted. The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic over time in 28 countries was analysed and fit to several simple rate models. The resulting model parameters were used to extrapolate projections for more recent data. While the Gompertz growth model (mean R2 = 0.998) best fit the current data, uncertainties in the eventual case limit introduced significant model errors. However, the quadratic rate model (mean R2 = 0.992) fit the current data best for 25 (89%) countries as determined by R2 values of the remaining models. Projection to the future using the simple quadratic model accurately forecast the number of future total number of cases 50% of the time up to 10 days in advance. Extrapolation to the future with the simple exponential model significantly overpredicted the total number of future cases. These results demonstrate that accurate future predictions of the case load in a given country can be made using this very simple model. |*Logistic Models[MESH] |*Models, Theoretical[MESH] |COVID-19/*diagnosis/epidemiology[MESH] |Europe/epidemiology[MESH] |Humans[MESH]A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a nati(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing