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10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7
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33750778!7943552!33750778
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33750778      Nat+Commun 2021 ; 12 (1): 1524
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  • The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19 #MMPMID33750778
  • Willem L; Abrams S; Libin PJK; Coletti P; Kuylen E; Petrof O; Mogelmose S; Wambua J; Herzog SA; Faes C; Beutels P; Hens N
  • Nat Commun 2021[Mar]; 12 (1): 1524 PMID33750778show ga
  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.
  • |*Contact Tracing[MESH]
  • |*Family Characteristics[MESH]
  • |*Quarantine[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |Belgium/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control/methods[MESH]
  • |Disease Transmission, Infectious/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Health Policy[MESH]
  • |Hospitalization[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Infant, Newborn[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification[MESH]
  • |Schools[MESH]


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