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10.1016/j.ijid.2021.03.050 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.03.050 33746095!7970752!33746095     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Int+J+Infect+Dis 2021 ; 106 (ä): 169-170 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33746095|t=2021. Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness |pdf=|usr=}}{{33746095}} gab.com Text Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness JO: Int J Infect Dis http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33746095 #FOAvip Recently released interim numbers from advanced vaccine candidate clinical trials suggest that a COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) of >90% is achievable. However, SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics are highly heterogeneous and exhibit localized bursts of transmission, which may lead to sharp localized peaks in the number of new cases, often followed by longer periods of low incidence. Here we show that, for interim estimates of VE, these characteristic bursts in SARS-CoV-2 infection may introduce a strong positive bias in VE. Specifically, we generate null models of vaccine effectiveness, i.e., random models with bursts that over longer periods converge to zero VE but that for interim periods frequently produce apparent VE near 100%. As an example, by following the relevant clinical trial protocol, we can reproduce recently reported interim outcomes from an ongoing phase 3 clinical trial of an RNA-based vaccine candidate. Thus, to avoid potential random biases in VE, it is suggested that interim estimates on COVID-19 VE should control for the intrinsic inhomogeneity in both SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and reported cases. Twit Text FOAVip Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness ????Int J Infect Dis http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33746095 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33746095 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33746095}}</ref> Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness #MMPMID33746095 Lisewski AM Int J Infect Dis 2021[May]; 106 (ä): 169-170 PMID33746095show ga Recently released interim numbers from advanced vaccine candidate clinical trials suggest that a COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) of >90% is achievable. However, SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics are highly heterogeneous and exhibit localized bursts of transmission, which may lead to sharp localized peaks in the number of new cases, often followed by longer periods of low incidence. Here we show that, for interim estimates of VE, these characteristic bursts in SARS-CoV-2 infection may introduce a strong positive bias in VE. Specifically, we generate null models of vaccine effectiveness, i.e., random models with bursts that over longer periods converge to zero VE but that for interim periods frequently produce apparent VE near 100%. As an example, by following the relevant clinical trial protocol, we can reproduce recently reported interim outcomes from an ongoing phase 3 clinical trial of an RNA-based vaccine candidate. Thus, to avoid potential random biases in VE, it is suggested that interim estimates on COVID-19 VE should control for the intrinsic inhomogeneity in both SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and reported cases. |*COVID-19 Vaccines[MESH] |*Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic[MESH] |Bias[MESH] |COVID-19/epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Models, Statistical[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2/*immunology[MESH]Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing