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10.3348/kjr.2020.1104

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3348/kjr.2020.1104
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33739635!8236359!33739635
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33739635      Korean+J+Radiol 2021 ; 22 (7): 1213-1224
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  • Machine Learning-Based Prediction of COVID-19 Severity and Progression to Critical Illness Using CT Imaging and Clinical Data #MMPMID33739635
  • Purkayastha S; Xiao Y; Jiao Z; Thepumnoeysuk R; Halsey K; Wu J; Tran TML; Hsieh B; Choi JW; Wang D; Vallieres M; Wang R; Collins S; Feng X; Feldman M; Zhang PJ; Atalay M; Sebro R; Yang L; Fan Y; Liao WH; Bai HX
  • Korean J Radiol 2021[Jul]; 22 (7): 1213-1224 PMID33739635show ga
  • OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. RESULTS: Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone (p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone (p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables (p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.
  • |*Machine Learning[MESH]
  • |*Severity of Illness Index[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*diagnosis[MESH]
  • |Critical Illness[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |ROC Curve[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity[MESH]


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