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10.1038/s41586-021-03426-1

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41586-021-03426-1
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33723411!9170116!33723411
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33723411      Nature 2021 ; 593 (7858): 270-274
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  • Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B 1 1 7 #MMPMID33723411
  • Davies NG; Jarvis CI; Edmunds WJ; Jewell NP; Diaz-Ordaz K; Keogh RH
  • Nature 2021[May]; 593 (7858): 270-274 PMID33723411show ga
  • SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant that was first detected in the UK in September 2020(1), has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity(2). Here we analyse a dataset that links 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 deaths associated with COVID-19 in England from 1 November 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because mutations in this lineage prevent PCR amplification of the spike (S) gene target (known as S gene target failure (SGTF)(1)). On the basis of 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% confidence interval, 39-72%) higher than in cases without SGTF after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, residence in a care home, the local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old man increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days of a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7 is 61% (42-82%) higher than with pre-existing variants. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.
  • |*Phylogeny[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*mortality/*virology[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |England/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Ethnicity[MESH]
  • |Evolution, Molecular[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Homes for the Aged[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Proportional Hazards Models[MESH]
  • |Risk Assessment[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2/*classification/genetics/isolation & purification/*pathogenicity[MESH]
  • |Survival Analysis[MESH]
  • |Time Factors[MESH]


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