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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Rev+Med+Virol 2021 ; 31 (5): 1-8 Nephropedia Template TP
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Estimating the impact of public health strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Epidemiological modelling for Toulouse, France #MMPMID33713504
Dimeglio C; Miedouge M; Loubes JM; Mansuy JM; Izopet J
Rev Med Virol 2021[Sep]; 31 (5): 1-8 PMID33713504show ga
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the resulting disease COVID-19 has killed over 2 million people as of 22 January 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in France will vary depending on the public health strategies adopted, including anti-COVID-19 vaccination. Our prediction model indicates that the French authorities' adoption of a gradual release from lockdown could lead in March 2021 to a virus prevalence similar to that before lockdown. However, a massive vaccination campaign initiated in January 2021 and the continuation of public health measures over several months could curb the spread of virus and thus relieve the load on hospitals.