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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 227.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Science 2021 ; 372 (6540): 363-370 Nephropedia Template TP
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Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes #MMPMID33688062
Saad-Roy CM; Morris SE; Metcalf CJE; Mina MJ; Baker RE; Farrar J; Holmes EC; Pybus OG; Graham AL; Levin SA; Grenfell BT; Wagner CE
Science 2021[Apr]; 372 (6540): 363-370 PMID33688062show ga
Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery of the second dose will affect infection dynamics and how it will affect prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a buildup of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose as compared with natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but that longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose and to ramp up vaccination efforts globally.