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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Sci+Adv 2021 ; 7 (10): ä Nephropedia Template TP
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An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time #MMPMID33674304
Kogan NE; Clemente L; Liautaud P; Kaashoek J; Link NB; Nguyen AT; Lu FS; Huybers P; Resch B; Havas C; Petutschnig A; Davis J; Chinazzi M; Mustafa B; Hanage WP; Vespignani A; Santillana M
Sci Adv 2021[Mar]; 7 (10): ä PMID33674304show ga
Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the United States. Until effective vaccines are widely deployed, curbing COVID-19 will require carefully timed nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A COVID-19 early warning system is vital for this. Here, we evaluate digital data streams as early indicators of state-level COVID-19 activity from 1 March to 30 September 2020. We observe that increases in digital data stream activity anticipate increases in confirmed cases and deaths by 2 to 3 weeks. Confirmed cases and deaths also decrease 2 to 4 weeks after NPI implementation, as measured by anonymized, phone-derived human mobility data. We propose a means of harmonizing these data streams to identify future COVID-19 outbreaks. Our results suggest that combining disparate health and behavioral data may help identify disease activity changes weeks before observation using traditional epidemiological monitoring.