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10.1126/science.abg3055

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1126/science.abg3055
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33658326!8128288!33658326
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33658326      Science 2021 ; 372 (6538): ä
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  • Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B 1 1 7 in England #MMPMID33658326
  • Davies NG; Abbott S; Barnard RC; Jarvis CI; Kucharski AJ; Munday JD; Pearson CAB; Russell TW; Tully DC; Washburne AD; Wenseleers T; Gimma A; Waites W; Wong KLM; van Zandvoort K; Silverman JD; Diaz-Ordaz K; Keogh R; Eggo RM; Funk S; Jit M; Atkins KE; Edmunds WJ
  • Science 2021[Apr]; 372 (6538): ä PMID33658326show ga
  • A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
  • |*SARS-CoV-2/genetics/growth & development/pathogenicity[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Vaccines[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/mortality/*transmission/*virology[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control[MESH]
  • |England/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Europe/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Mutation[MESH]
  • |Severity of Illness Index[MESH]
  • |Socioeconomic Factors[MESH]
  • |United States/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Viral Load[MESH]


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