Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Econ+Hum+Biol 2021 ; 41 (ä): 100988 Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Early warning of vulnerable counties in a pandemic using socio-economic variables #MMPMID33636583
Ruck DJ; Bentley RA; Borycz J
Econ Hum Biol 2021[May]; 41 (ä): 100988 PMID33636583show ga
In the U.S. in early 2020, heterogenous and incomplete county-scale data on COVID-19 hindered effective interventions in the pandemic. While numbers of deaths can be used to estimate actual number of infections after a time lag, counties with low death counts early on have considerable uncertainty about true numbers of cases in the future. Here we show that supplementing county-scale mortality statistics with socioeconomic data helps estimate true numbers of COVID-19 infections in low-data counties, and hence provide an early warning of future concern. We fit a LASSO negative binomial regression to select a parsimonious set of five predictive variables from thirty-one county-level covariates. Of these, population density, public transportation use, voting patterns and % African-American population are most predictive of higher COVID-19 death rates. To test the model, we show that counties identified as under-estimating COVID-19 on an early date (April 17) have relatively higher deaths later (July 1) in the pandemic.
|*Socioeconomic Factors[MESH]
|Black or African American/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]