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10.1016/j.ehb.2021.100988

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.100988
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33636583!8054145!33636583
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33636583      Econ+Hum+Biol 2021 ; 41 (ä): 100988
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  • Early warning of vulnerable counties in a pandemic using socio-economic variables #MMPMID33636583
  • Ruck DJ; Bentley RA; Borycz J
  • Econ Hum Biol 2021[May]; 41 (ä): 100988 PMID33636583show ga
  • In the U.S. in early 2020, heterogenous and incomplete county-scale data on COVID-19 hindered effective interventions in the pandemic. While numbers of deaths can be used to estimate actual number of infections after a time lag, counties with low death counts early on have considerable uncertainty about true numbers of cases in the future. Here we show that supplementing county-scale mortality statistics with socioeconomic data helps estimate true numbers of COVID-19 infections in low-data counties, and hence provide an early warning of future concern. We fit a LASSO negative binomial regression to select a parsimonious set of five predictive variables from thirty-one county-level covariates. Of these, population density, public transportation use, voting patterns and % African-American population are most predictive of higher COVID-19 death rates. To test the model, we show that counties identified as under-estimating COVID-19 on an early date (April 17) have relatively higher deaths later (July 1) in the pandemic.
  • |*Socioeconomic Factors[MESH]
  • |Black or African American/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Small-Area Analysis[MESH]


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