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10.1038/s41598-021-84055-6 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41598-021-84055-6 33633275!7907339!33633275     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Sci+Rep 2021 ; 11 (1): 4725 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33633275|t=2021. Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan |pdf=|usr=}}{{33633275}} gab.com Text Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan JO: Sci Rep http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33633275 #FOAvip The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic. Twit Text FOAVip Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan ????Sci Rep http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33633275 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33633275 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33633275}}</ref> Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan #MMPMID33633275 Moein S; Nickaeen N; Roointan A; Borhani N; Heidary Z; Javanmard SH; Ghaisari J; Gheisari Y Sci Rep 2021[Feb]; 11 (1): 4725 PMID33633275show ga The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic. |Algorithms[MESH] |COVID-19/*epidemiology[MESH] |Disease Outbreaks[MESH] |Forecasting[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Iran/epidemiology[MESH] |Models, Statistical[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH]Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case st(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing