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10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16164.2 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16164.2 33623826!7871360!33623826     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 225.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Wellcome+Open+Res 2020 ; 5 (ä): 213 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33623826|t=2020. The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study |pdf=|usr=}}{{33623826}} gab.com Text The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study JO: Wellcome Open Res http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33623826 #FOAvip Background: ? During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ? We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ? If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk. Twit Text FOAVip The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study ????Wellcome Open Res http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33623826 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33623826 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33623826}}</ref> The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study #MMPMID33623826 Leng T; White C; Hilton J; Kucharski A; Pellis L; Stage H; Davies NG; Keeling MJ; Flasche S Wellcome Open Res 2020[]; 5 (ä): 213 PMID33623826show ga Background: ? During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ? We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ? If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk. äThe effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exi(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing