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10.1093/jtm/taab023

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33615383!7928737!33615383
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33615383      J+Travel+Med 2021 ; 28 (4): ä
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  • Inflight transmission of COVID-19 based on experimental aerosol dispersion data #MMPMID33615383
  • Wang Z; Galea ER; Grandison A; Ewer J; Jia F
  • J Travel Med 2021[Jun]; 28 (4): ä PMID33615383show ga
  • BACKGROUND: An issue of concern to the travelling public is the possibility of in-flight transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during long- and short-haul flights. The aviation industry maintains that the probability of contracting the illness is small based on reported cases, modelling and data from aerosol dispersion experiments conducted on-board aircraft. METHODS: Using experimentally derived aerosol dispersion data for a B777-200 aircraft and a modified version of the Wells-Riley equation we estimate inflight infection probability for a range of scenarios involving quanta generation rate and face mask efficiency. Quanta generation rates were selected based on COVID-19 events reported in the literature while mask efficiency was determined from the aerosol dispersion experiments. RESULTS: The MID-AFT cabin exhibits the highest infection probability. The calculated maximum individual infection probability (without masks) for a 2-hour flight in this section varies from 4.5% for the 'Mild Scenario' to 60.2% for the 'Severe Scenario' although the corresponding average infection probability varies from 0.1% to 2.5%. For a 12-hour flight, the corresponding maximum individual infection probability varies from 24.1% to 99.6% and the average infection probability varies from 0.8% to 10.8%. If all passengers wear face masks throughout the 12-hour flight, the average infection probability can be reduced by ~73%/32% for high/low efficiency masks. If face masks are worn by all passengers except during a one-hour meal service, the average infection probability is increased by 59%/8% compared to the situation where the mask is not removed. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis has demonstrated that while there is a significant reduction in aerosol concentration due to the nature of the cabin ventilation and filtration system, this does not necessarily mean that there is a low probability or risk of in-flight infection. However, mask wearing, particularly high-efficiency ones, significantly reduces this risk.
  • |*Aerosols[MESH]
  • |*Aircraft[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]


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