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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Health+Policy 2021 ; 125 (4): 535-540 Nephropedia Template TP
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Using newspaper obituaries to "nowcast" daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots #MMPMID33579561
Buonanno P; Puca M
Health Policy 2021[Apr]; 125 (4): 535-540 PMID33579561show ga
Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to "nowcast" the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperform forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially valid alternative source of information to deal with epidemic surveillance.