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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 PLoS+One 2021 ; 16 (2): e0246715 Nephropedia Template TP
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Evaluating the effect of Chinese control measures on COVID-19 via temporal reproduction number estimation #MMPMID33571273
Chen D; Zhou T
PLoS One 2021[]; 16 (2): e0246715 PMID33571273show ga
Control measures are necessary to contain the spread of serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, especially in its early stage. We propose to use temporal reproduction number an extension of effective reproduction number, to evaluate the efficacy of control measures, and establish a Monte-Carlo method to estimate the temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets. The province-level analysis indicates that the effective reproduction numbers of the majority of provinces in mainland China got down to < 1 just by one week from the setting of control measures, and the temporal reproduction number of the week [15 Feb, 21 Feb] is only about 0.18. It is therefore likely that Chinese control measures on COVID-19 are effective and efficient, though more research needs to be performed.