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10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1 33558479!7870658!33558479     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Nat+Commun 2021 ; 12 (1): 846 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33558479|t=2021. Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks |pdf=|usr=}}{{33558479}} gab.com Text Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks JO: Nat Commun http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33558479 #FOAvip High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions. Twit Text FOAVip Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks ????Nat Commun http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33558479 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33558479 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33558479}}</ref> Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks #MMPMID33558479 Baker RE; Yang W; Vecchi GA; Metcalf CJE; Grenfell BT Nat Commun 2021[Feb]; 12 (1): 846 PMID33558479show ga High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions. |*Climate[MESH] |*Seasons[MESH] |Algorithms[MESH] |COVID-19/epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH] |Disease Outbreaks[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH]Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing