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10.1126/sciadv.abf1374

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1126/sciadv.abf1374
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33536223!8128110!33536223
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33536223      Sci+Adv 2020 ; 7 (6): ä
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  • Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first? #MMPMID33536223
  • Matrajt L; Eaton J; Leung T; Brown ER
  • Sci Adv 2020[Feb]; 7 (6): ä PMID33536223show ga
  • Vaccines, when available, will likely become our best tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, vaccine shortages will likely occur. Using an age-stratified mathematical model paired with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for four different metrics (deaths, symptomatic infections, and maximum non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations) under many scenarios. We find that a vaccine with effectiveness >/=50% would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic, provided that a high percentage of the population is optimally vaccinated. When minimizing deaths, we find that for low vaccine effectiveness, irrespective of vaccination coverage, it is optimal to allocate vaccine to high-risk (older) age groups first. In contrast, for higher vaccine effectiveness, there is a switch to allocate vaccine to high-transmission (younger) age groups first for high vaccination coverage. While there are other societal and ethical considerations, this work can provide an evidence-based rationale for vaccine prioritization.
  • |Age Factors[MESH]
  • |Algorithms[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Vaccines/*immunology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/pathology/*prevention & control/virology[MESH]
  • |Epidemics[MESH]
  • |Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Models, Biological[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Risk[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification[MESH]


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