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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Med+Decis+Making 2021 ; 41 (4): 379-385 Nephropedia Template TP
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The Use and Misuse of Mathematical Modeling for Infectious Disease Policymaking: Lessons for the COVID-19 Pandemic #MMPMID33535889
James LP; Salomon JA; Buckee CO; Menzies NA
Med Decis Making 2021[May]; 41 (4): 379-385 PMID33535889show ga
Mathematical modeling has played a prominent and necessary role in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with an increasing number of models being developed to track and project the spread of the disease, as well as major decisions being made based on the results of these studies. A proliferation of models, often diverging widely in their projections, has been accompanied by criticism of the validity of modeled analyses and uncertainty as to when and to what extent results can be trusted. Drawing on examples from COVID-19 and other infectious diseases of global importance, we review key limitations of mathematical modeling as a tool for interpreting empirical data and informing individual and public decision making. We present several approaches that have been used to strengthen the validity of inferences drawn from these analyses, approaches that will enable better decision making in the current COVID-19 crisis and beyond.