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10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1
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33531085!7854021!33531085
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33531085      Infect+Dis+Poverty 2021 ; 10 (1): 11
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  • COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-August 2020 #MMPMID33531085
  • Undurraga EA; Chowell G; Mizumoto K
  • Infect Dis Poverty 2021[Feb]; 10 (1): 11 PMID33531085show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America. METHODS: We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework. RESULTS: As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09-4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19-3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67-3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25-58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02-42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates. CONCLUSIONS: Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged >/= 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality.
  • |*SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Age Distribution[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/*mortality[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Chile/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Infant, Newborn[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Risk[MESH]
  • |Sex Distribution[MESH]


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