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10.1093/cid/ciab079

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1093/cid/ciab079
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33515252!7929033!33515252
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33515252      Clin+Infect+Dis 2021 ; 73 (12): 2257-2264
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  • The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States #MMPMID33515252
  • Moghadas SM; Vilches TN; Zhang K; Wells CR; Shoukat A; Singer BH; Meyers LA; Neuzil KM; Langley JM; Fitzpatrick MC; Galvani AP
  • Clin Infect Dis 2021[Dec]; 73 (12): 2257-2264 PMID33515252show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States. RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Vaccines[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |United States/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Vaccination[MESH]
  • |Vaccine Development[MESH]


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