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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Front+Public+Health 2020 ; 8 (ä): 577431 Nephropedia Template TP
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Serial Interval and Generation Interval for Imported and Local Infectors, Respectively, Estimated Using Reported Contact-Tracing Data of COVID-19 in China #MMPMID33490015
Li M; Liu K; Song Y; Wang M; Wu J
Front Public Health 2020[]; 8 (ä): 577431 PMID33490015show ga
The emerging virus, COVID-19, has caused a massive outbreak worldwide. Based on the publicly available contact-tracing data, we identified 509 transmission chains from 20 provinces in China and estimated the serial interval (SI) and generation interval (GI) of COVID-19 in China. Inspired by different possible values of the time-varying reproduction number for the imported cases and the local cases in China, we divided all transmission events into three subsets: imported (the zeroth generation) infecting 1st-generation locals, 1st-generation locals infecting 2nd-generation locals, and other transmissions among 2+. The corresponding SI (GI) is respectively denoted as SI10 ( GI10 ), SI21 ( GI21 ), and SI3+2+ ( GI3+2+ ). A Bayesian approach with doubly interval-censored likelihood is employed to fit the distribution function of the SI and GI. It was found that the estimated SI10 = 6.52 (95% CI:5.96 - 7.13) , SI21 = 6.01 (95%CI:5.44 - 6.64) , SI3+2+ = 4.39 (95% CI:3.74 - 5.15) , and GI10 = 5.47 (95% CI:4.57 - 6.45) , GI21 = 5.01 (95% CI:3.58 - 7.06) , GI3+2+ = 4.25 (95% CI:2.82 - 6.23) . Thus, overall both SI and GI decrease when generation increases.