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10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3
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33469244!7809554!33469244
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33469244      J+Popul+Econ 2021 ; 34 (2): 739-767
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  • The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election #MMPMID33469244
  • Baccini L; Brodeur A; Weymouth S
  • J Popul Econ 2021[]; 34 (2): 739-767 PMID33469244show ga
  • What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters' mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.
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