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10.1371/journal.pone.0244706 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0244706 33406106!7787468!33406106     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PLoS+One 2021 ; 16 (1): e0244706 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33406106|t=2021. Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks |pdf=|usr=}}{{33406106}} gab.com Text Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks JO: PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406106 #FOAvip Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates infectious contacts, it comes with significant costs. Several recent studies have suggested that a plausible compromise strategy for minimizing epidemic risk is periodic closure, in which populations oscillate between wide-spread social restrictions and relaxation. However, no underlying theory has been proposed to predict and explain optimal closure periods as a function of epidemiological and social parameters. In this work we develop such an analytical theory for SEIR-like model diseases, showing how characteristic closure periods emerge that minimize the total outbreak, and increase predictably with the reproductive number and incubation periods of a disease- as long as both are within predictable limits. Using our approach we demonstrate a sweet-spot effect in which optimal periodic closure is maximally effective for diseases with similar incubation and recovery periods. Our results compare well to numerical simulations, including in COVID-19 models where infectivity and recovery show significant variation. Twit Text FOAVip Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks ????PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406106 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406106 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33406106}}</ref> Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks #MMPMID33406106 Hindes J; Bianco S; Schwartz IB PLoS One 2021[]; 16 (1): e0244706 PMID33406106show ga Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates infectious contacts, it comes with significant costs. Several recent studies have suggested that a plausible compromise strategy for minimizing epidemic risk is periodic closure, in which populations oscillate between wide-spread social restrictions and relaxation. However, no underlying theory has been proposed to predict and explain optimal closure periods as a function of epidemiological and social parameters. In this work we develop such an analytical theory for SEIR-like model diseases, showing how characteristic closure periods emerge that minimize the total outbreak, and increase predictably with the reproductive number and incubation periods of a disease- as long as both are within predictable limits. Using our approach we demonstrate a sweet-spot effect in which optimal periodic closure is maximally effective for diseases with similar incubation and recovery periods. Our results compare well to numerical simulations, including in COVID-19 models where infectivity and recovery show significant variation. |COVID-19/prevention & control[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control/methods[MESH] |Communicable Diseases/psychology[MESH] |Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Epidemics/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Quarantine/*methods[MESH] |Risk Management/*methods[MESH]Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbr(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing