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10.1371/journal.pone.0244537 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0244537 33406102!7787456!33406102     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PLoS+One 2021 ; 16 (1): e0244537 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33406102|t=2021. Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada |pdf=|usr=}}{{33406102}} gab.com Text Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada JO: PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406102 #FOAvip OBJECTIVES: The unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic. METHODS: We fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year. RESULTS: Assuming a closed population, near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4-6 months (by July or August) if there were no relaxation of social distancing. Relaxing to 15% of pre-COVID effective contacts may extend the local epidemic for more than two years (median 2.1). Relaxation to 50% of pre-COVID effective contacts may result in a peak prevalence of 31-38% of the population, within 3-4 months of initial relaxation. CONCLUSION: Slight relaxation of social distancing may immensely impact the pandemic duration and expected peak prevalence. Only holding the course with respect to social distancing may have resulted in near elimination before Fall of 2020; relaxing social distancing to 15% of pre-COVID-19 contacts will flatten the epidemic curve but greatly extend the duration of the pandemic. Twit Text FOAVip Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada ????PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406102 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33406102 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33406102}}</ref> Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada #MMPMID33406102 Shafer LA; Nesca M; Balshaw R PLoS One 2021[]; 16 (1): e0244537 PMID33406102show ga OBJECTIVES: The unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic. METHODS: We fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year. RESULTS: Assuming a closed population, near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4-6 months (by July or August) if there were no relaxation of social distancing. Relaxing to 15% of pre-COVID effective contacts may extend the local epidemic for more than two years (median 2.1). Relaxation to 50% of pre-COVID effective contacts may result in a peak prevalence of 31-38% of the population, within 3-4 months of initial relaxation. CONCLUSION: Slight relaxation of social distancing may immensely impact the pandemic duration and expected peak prevalence. Only holding the course with respect to social distancing may have resulted in near elimination before Fall of 2020; relaxing social distancing to 15% of pre-COVID-19 contacts will flatten the epidemic curve but greatly extend the duration of the pandemic. |*Physical Distancing[MESH] |COVID-19/*psychology[MESH] |Canada/epidemiology[MESH] |Contact Tracing/methods/trends[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Manitoba/epidemiology[MESH] |Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH] |Quarantine/*methods/psychology[MESH]Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact o(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing