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10.1098/rsos.200909 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1098/rsos.200909 33391791!7735365!33391791     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       R+Soc+Open+Sci 2020 ; 7 (11): 200909 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33391791|t=2020. Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach |pdf=|usr=}}{{33391791}} gab.com Text Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach JO: R Soc Open Sci http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33391791 #FOAvip Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 developed countries. Our sample comprised countries with similar levels of medical care and with populations that have similar age distributions. Monte Carlo methods were used to robustly sample parameter uncertainty. We found a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between the proportion of the population who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Despite an overall improvement in detection rates as the pandemic has progressed, our estimates showed that, as at 31 August 2020, the true number of people to have been infected across our sample of 15 countries was 6.2 (95% CI: 4.3-10.9) times greater than the reported number of cases. In individual countries, the true number of cases exceeded the reported figure by factors that range from 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-4.5) for South Korea to 17.5 (95% CI: 12.2-30.7) for Italy. Twit Text FOAVip Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach ????R Soc Open Sci http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33391791 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33391791 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33391791}}</ref> Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach #MMPMID33391791 Phipps SJ; Grafton RQ; Kompas T R Soc Open Sci 2020[Nov]; 7 (11): 200909 PMID33391791show ga Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 developed countries. Our sample comprised countries with similar levels of medical care and with populations that have similar age distributions. Monte Carlo methods were used to robustly sample parameter uncertainty. We found a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between the proportion of the population who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Despite an overall improvement in detection rates as the pandemic has progressed, our estimates showed that, as at 31 August 2020, the true number of people to have been infected across our sample of 15 countries was 6.2 (95% CI: 4.3-10.9) times greater than the reported number of cases. In individual countries, the true number of cases exceeded the reported figure by factors that range from 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-4.5) for South Korea to 17.5 (95% CI: 12.2-30.7) for Italy. äRobust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19:(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing