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10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100430 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100430 33360871!7833509!33360871     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Epidemics 2021 ; 34 (ä): 100430 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33360871|t=2021. Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control |pdf=|usr=}}{{33360871}} gab.com Text Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control JO: Epidemics http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33360871 #FOAvip Disease transmission is notoriously heterogeneous, and SARS-CoV-2 is no exception. A skewed distribution where few individuals or events are responsible for the majority of transmission can result in explosive, superspreading events, which produce rapid and volatile epidemic dynamics, especially early or late in epidemics. Anticipating and preventing superspreading events can produce large reductions in overall transmission rates. Here, we present a stochastic compartmental (SEIR) epidemiological model framework for estimating transmission parameters from multiple imperfectly observed data streams, including reported cases, deaths, and mobile phone-based mobility that incorporates individual-level heterogeneity in transmission using previous estimates for SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. We parameterize the model for COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by estimating a time-varying transmission rate that incorporates the impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies that change over time, in five epidemiologically distinct settings-Los Angeles and Santa Clara Counties, California; Seattle (King County), Washington; Atlanta (Dekalb and Fulton Counties), Georgia; and Miami (Miami-Dade County), Florida. We find that the effective reproduction number (R(E)) dropped below 1 rapidly in all five locations following social distancing orders in mid-March, 2020, but that gradually increasing mobility starting around mid-April led to an R(E) once again above 1 in late May (Los Angeles, Miami, and Atlanta) or early June (Santa Clara County and Seattle). However, we find that increased social distancing starting in mid-July in response to epidemic resurgence once again dropped R(E) below 1 in all locations by August 14. We next used the fitted model to ask: how does truncating the individual-level transmission rate distribution (which removes periods of time with especially high individual transmission rates and thus models superspreading events) affect epidemic dynamics and control? We find that interventions that truncate the transmission rate distribution while partially relaxing social distancing are broadly effective, with impacts on epidemic growth on par with the strongest population-wide social distancing observed in April, 2020. Given that social distancing interventions will be needed to maintain epidemic control until a vaccine becomes widely available, "chopping off the tail" to reduce the probability of superspreading events presents a promising option to alleviate the need for extreme general social distancing. Twit Text FOAVip Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control ????Epidemics http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33360871 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33360871 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33360871}}</ref> Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control #MMPMID33360871 Kain MP; Childs ML; Becker AD; Mordecai EA Epidemics 2021[Mar]; 34 (ä): 100430 PMID33360871show ga Disease transmission is notoriously heterogeneous, and SARS-CoV-2 is no exception. A skewed distribution where few individuals or events are responsible for the majority of transmission can result in explosive, superspreading events, which produce rapid and volatile epidemic dynamics, especially early or late in epidemics. Anticipating and preventing superspreading events can produce large reductions in overall transmission rates. Here, we present a stochastic compartmental (SEIR) epidemiological model framework for estimating transmission parameters from multiple imperfectly observed data streams, including reported cases, deaths, and mobile phone-based mobility that incorporates individual-level heterogeneity in transmission using previous estimates for SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. We parameterize the model for COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by estimating a time-varying transmission rate that incorporates the impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies that change over time, in five epidemiologically distinct settings-Los Angeles and Santa Clara Counties, California; Seattle (King County), Washington; Atlanta (Dekalb and Fulton Counties), Georgia; and Miami (Miami-Dade County), Florida. We find that the effective reproduction number (R(E)) dropped below 1 rapidly in all five locations following social distancing orders in mid-March, 2020, but that gradually increasing mobility starting around mid-April led to an R(E) once again above 1 in late May (Los Angeles, Miami, and Atlanta) or early June (Santa Clara County and Seattle). However, we find that increased social distancing starting in mid-July in response to epidemic resurgence once again dropped R(E) below 1 in all locations by August 14. We next used the fitted model to ask: how does truncating the individual-level transmission rate distribution (which removes periods of time with especially high individual transmission rates and thus models superspreading events) affect epidemic dynamics and control? We find that interventions that truncate the transmission rate distribution while partially relaxing social distancing are broadly effective, with impacts on epidemic growth on par with the strongest population-wide social distancing observed in April, 2020. Given that social distancing interventions will be needed to maintain epidemic control until a vaccine becomes widely available, "chopping off the tail" to reduce the probability of superspreading events presents a promising option to alleviate the need for extreme general social distancing. |*Models, Theoretical[MESH] |*Physical Distancing[MESH] |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH] |COVID-19/*prevention & control/*transmission[MESH] |California[MESH] |Epidemics/*prevention & control[MESH] |Florida[MESH] |Georgia[MESH] |Humans[MESH]Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing