Use my Search Websuite to scan PubMed, PMCentral, Journal Hosts and Journal Archives, FullText. Kick-your-searchterm to multiple Engines kick-your-query now !>

A dictionary by aggregated review articles of nephrology, medicine and the life sciences Your one-stop-run pathway from word to the immediate pdf of peer-reviewed on-topic knowledge.

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.11.010 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.11.010 33311822!7717777!33311822     free     free     free Warning: file_get_contents(https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&id=33311822&cmd=llinks): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 215 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Int+J+Forecast 2022 ; 38 (2): 439-452 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33311822|t=2022. COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model |pdf=|usr=}}{{33311822}} gab.com Text COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model JO: Int J Forecast http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33311822 #FOAvip Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant. Twit Text FOAVip COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model ????Int J Forecast http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33311822 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33311822 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33311822}}</ref> COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model #MMPMID33311822 Petropoulos F; Makridakis S; Stylianou N Int J Forecast 2022[Apr]; 38 (2): 439-452 PMID33311822show ga Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant. äCOVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time se(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing