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10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.017

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.017
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33309293!7649031!33309293
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmid33309293      Health+Policy 2021 ; 125 (2): 141-147
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  • COVID-19: R(0) is lower where outbreak is larger #MMPMID33309293
  • Battiston P; Gamba S
  • Health Policy 2021[Feb]; 125 (2): 141-147 PMID33309293show ga
  • We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model on each municipality. Municipalities with a higher initial number of cases feature a lower rate of diffusion, not attributable to herd immunity: there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the initial outbreak size. This represents novel evidence of the prevalence-response elasticity in a cross-sectional setting, characterized by a same health system and homogeneous social distancing regulations. By ruling out alternative explanations, we conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This finding calls for the distribution of detailed epidemiological data to populations affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • |Basic Reproduction Number/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Cross-Sectional Studies[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Italy/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]


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