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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Risk+Manag+Healthc+Policy 2020 ; 13 (ä): 2811-2818 Nephropedia Template TP
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Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive #MMPMID33299369
Zhang SX; Sun S; Afshar Jahanshahi A; Wang Y; Nazarian Madavani A; Li J; Mokhtari Dinani M
Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2020[]; 13 (ä): 2811-2818 PMID33299369show ga
BACKGROUND: This study aims to identify individuals' likelihood of being COVID negative or positive, enabling more targeted infectious disease prevention and control when there is a shortage of COVID-19 testing kits. METHODS: We conducted a primary survey of 521 adults on April 1-10, 2020 in Iran, where 3% reported being COVID-19 positive and 15% were unsure whether they were infected. This relatively high positive rate enabled us to conduct the analysis at the 5% significance level. RESULTS: Adults who exercised more were more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Each additional hour of exercise per day predicted a 78% increase in the likelihood of being COVID-19 negative. Adults with chronic health issues were 48% more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Those working from home were the most likely to be COVID-19 negative, and those who had stopped working due to the pandemic were the most likely to be COVID-19 positive. Adults employed in larger organizations were less likely to be COVID-19 positive. CONCLUSION: This study enables more targeted infectious disease prevention and control by identifying the risk factors of COVID-19 infections from a set of readily accessible information. We hope this research opens a new research avenue to predict the individual likelihood of COVID-19 infection by risk factors.