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10.1371/journal.pone.0243414

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0243414
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33296409!7725390!33296409
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33296409      PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (12): e0243414
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  • COVID-MATCH65-A prospectively derived clinical decision rule for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 #MMPMID33296409
  • Trubiano JA; Vogrin S; Smibert OC; Marhoon N; Alexander AA; Chua KYL; James FL; Jones NRL; Grigg SE; Xu CLH; Moini N; Stanley SR; Birrell MT; Rose MT; Gordon CL; Kwong JC; Holmes NE
  • PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (12): e0243414 PMID33296409show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: We report on the key clinical predictors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and present a clinical decision rule that can risk stratify patients for COVID-19. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A prospective cohort of patients assessed for COVID-19 at a screening clinic in Melbourne, Australia. The primary outcome was a positive COVID-19 test from nasopharyngeal swab. A backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to derive a model of clinical variables predictive of a positive COVID-19 test. Internal validation of the final model was performed using bootstrapped samples and the model scoring derived from the coefficients, with modelling performed for increasing prevalence. RESULTS: Of 4226 patients with suspected COVID-19 who were assessed, 2976 patients underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing (n = 108 SARS-CoV-2 positive) and were used to determine factors associated with a positive COVID-19 test. The 7 features associated with a positive COVID-19 test on multivariable analysis were: COVID-19 patient exposure or international travel, Myalgia/malaise, Anosmia or ageusia, Temperature, Coryza/sore throat, Hypoxia-oxygen saturation < 97%, 65 years or older-summarized in the mnemonic COVID-MATCH65. Internal validation showed an AUC of 0.836. A cut-off of >/= 1.5 points was associated with a 92.6% sensitivity and 99.5% negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: From the largest prospective outpatient cohort of suspected COVID-19 we define the clinical factors predictive of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. The subsequent clinical decision rule, COVID-MATCH65, has a high sensitivity and NPV for SARS-CoV-2 and can be employed in the pandemic, adjusted for disease prevalence, to aid COVID-19 risk-assessment and vital testing resource allocation.
  • |*COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing[MESH]
  • |*COVID-19/diagnosis/epidemiology/therapy[MESH]
  • |*Clinical Decision-Making[MESH]
  • |*Models, Biological[MESH]
  • |*SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Australia/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]


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