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Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China #MMPMID33293743
Li J; Yuan P; Heffernan J; Zheng T; Ogden N; Sander B; Li J; Li Q; Belair J; Kong JD; Aruffo E; Tan Y; Jin Z; Yu Y; Fan M; Cui J; Teng Z; Zhu H
Bull World Health Organ 2020[Dec]; 98 (12): 830-841D PMID33293743show ga
OBJECTIVE: To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic. METHODS: We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic. FINDINGS: Based on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71). CONCLUSION: While the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
|COVID-19/*epidemiology/*therapy[MESH]
|China/epidemiology[MESH]
|Hospital Bed Capacity/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
|Humans[MESH]
|Markov Chains[MESH]
|Mobile Health Units/*organization & administration[MESH]