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10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033
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33275956!7706420!33275956
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33275956      J+Infect 2021 ; 82 (1): 133-142
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  • Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: An analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries #MMPMID33275956
  • Piovani D; Christodoulou MN; Hadjidemetriou A; Pantavou K; Zaza P; Bagos PG; Bonovas S; Nikolopoulos GK
  • J Infect 2021[Jan]; 82 (1): 133-142 PMID33275956show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. METHODS: Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed. RESULTS: Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9). CONCLUSIONS: Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.
  • |*Crowding[MESH]
  • |*Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |*Policy Making[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/mortality/*prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Longitudinal Studies[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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