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10.1017/S0950268820002903

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/S0950268820002903
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33239114!7729170!33239114
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33239114      Epidemiol+Infect 2020 ; 148 (ä): e286
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  • Development and validation of the patient history COVID-19 (PH-Covid19) scoring system: a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19 #MMPMID33239114
  • Mancilla-Galindo J; Vera-Zertuche JM; Navarro-Cruz AR; Segura-Badilla O; Reyes-Velazquez G; Tepepa-Lopez FJ; Aguilar-Alonso P; Vidal-Mayo JJ; Kammar-Garcia A
  • Epidemiol Infect 2020[Nov]; 148 (ä): e286 PMID33239114show ga
  • Most of the existing prediction models for COVID-19 lack validation, are inadequately reported or are at high risk of bias, a reason which has led to discourage their use. Few existing models have the potential to be extensively used by healthcare providers in low-resource settings since many require laboratory and imaging predictors. Therefore, we sought to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19, by using demographic and patient history predictors. We conducted a national retrospective cohort study in two different sets of patients from the Mexican COVID-19 Epidemiologic Surveillance Study. Patients with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and complete unduplicated data were eligible. In total, 83 779 patients were included to develop the scoring system through a multivariable Cox regression model; 100 000, to validate the model. Eight predictors (age, sex, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunosuppression, hypertension, obesity and chronic kidney disease) were included in the scoring system called PH-Covid19 (range of values: -2 to 25 points). The predictive model has a discrimination of death of 0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.796-0.804). The PH-Covid19 scoring system was developed and validated in Mexican patients to aid clinicians to stratify patients with COVID-19 at risk of fatal outcomes, allowing for better and efficient use of resources.
  • |*Comorbidity[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*mortality[MESH]
  • |Forecasting/*methods[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Mexico/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Proportional Hazards Models[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]
  • |Risk Assessment/*methods[MESH]
  • |Risk Factors[MESH]


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