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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Chaos+Solitons+Fractals 2021 ; 142 (ä): 110431 Nephropedia Template TP
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Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread #MMPMID33199943
de Souza SLT; Batista AM; Caldas IL; Iarosz KC; Szezech JD Jr
Chaos Solitons Fractals 2021[Jan]; 142 (ä): 110431 PMID33199943show ga
During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility.