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10.1038/s41598-020-75651-z

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41598-020-75651-z
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33188225!7666132!33188225
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33188225      Sci+Rep 2020 ; 10 (1): 19794
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  • Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients #MMPMID33188225
  • Gude F; Riveiro V; Rodriguez-Nunez N; Ricoy J; Lado-Baleato O; Lourido T; Rabade C; Lama A; Casal A; Abelleira-Paris R; Ferreiro L; Suarez-Antelo J; Toubes ME; Pou C; Taboada-Muniz M; Calle-Velles F; Mayan-Conesa P; Del Molino MLP; Galban-Rodriguez C; Alvarez-Escudero J; Beceiro-Abad C; Molinos-Castro S; Agra-Vazquez N; Pazo-Nunez M; Paez-Guillan E; Varela-Garcia P; Martinez-Rey C; Pernas-Pardavila H; Dominguez-Santalla MJ; Vidal-Vazquez M; Marques-Afonso AT; Gonzalez-Quintela A; Gonzalez-Juanatey JR; Pose A; Valdes L
  • Sci Rep 2020[Nov]; 10 (1): 19794 PMID33188225show ga
  • The prognosis of a patient with COVID-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1152 patients presented with SARS-CoV-2 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 h of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO(2), and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score = 0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores 25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.
  • |*Severity of Illness Index[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/*pathology/therapy[MESH]
  • |Comorbidity[MESH]
  • |Critical Illness[MESH]
  • |Disease Progression[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Inpatients/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]


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