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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 J+Infect+Dis 2021 ; 223 (1): 38-46 Nephropedia Template TP
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CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis #MMPMID33098643
Sun H; Jain A; Leone MJ; Alabsi HS; Brenner LN; Ye E; Ge W; Shao YP; Boutros CL; Wang R; Tesh RA; Magdamo C; Collens SI; Ganglberger W; Bassett IV; Meigs JB; Kalpathy-Cramer J; Li MD; Chu JT; Dougan ML; Stratton LW; Rosand J; Fischl B; Das S; Mukerji SS; Robbins GK; Westover MB
J Infect Dis 2021[Jan]; 223 (1): 38-46 PMID33098643show ga
BACKGROUND: We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care. METHODS: We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March-2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3-14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. CONCLUSIONS: CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.