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10.3201/eid2611.200448

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3201/eid2611.200448
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33079036!7588521!33079036
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33079036      Emerg+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 26 (11): 2669-2677
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  • Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019 #MMPMID33079036
  • Spreco A; Eriksson O; Dahlstrom O; Cowling BJ; Biggerstaff M; Ljunggren G; Joud A; Istefan E; Timpka T
  • Emerg Infect Dis 2020[Nov]; 26 (11): 2669-2677 PMID33079036show ga
  • The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
  • |*Epidemics[MESH]
  • |*Influenza, Human/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Forecasting[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Prospective Studies[MESH]
  • |Seasons[MESH]


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