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10.1016/j.ajem.2020.09.017

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ajem.2020.09.017
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33046294      Am+J+Emerg+Med 2021 ; 45 (ä): 378-384
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  • Predicting severe outcomes in Covid-19 related illness using only patient demographics, comorbidities and symptoms #MMPMID33046294
  • Ryan C; Minc A; Caceres J; Balsalobre A; Dixit A; Ng BK; Schmitzberger F; Syed-Abdul S; Fung C
  • Am J Emerg Med 2021[Jul]; 45 (ä): 378-384 PMID33046294show ga
  • OBJECTIVE: Development of a risk-stratification model to predict severe Covid-19 related illness, using only presenting symptoms, comorbidities and demographic data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a case-control study with cases being those with severe disease, defined as ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, death or discharge to hospice, and controls being those with non-severe disease. Predictor variables included patient demographics, symptoms and past medical history. Participants were 556 patients with laboratory confirmed Covid-19 and were included consecutively after presenting to the emergency department at a tertiary care center from March 1, 2020 to April 21, 2020 RESULTS: Most common symptoms included cough (82%), dyspnea (75%), and fever/chills (77%), with 96% reporting at least one of these. Multivariable logistic regression analysis found that increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.06), dyspnea (OR, 2.56; 95% CI: 1.51-4.33), male sex (OR, 1.70; 95% CI: 1.10-2.64), immunocompromised status (OR, 2.22; 95% CI: 1.17-4.16) and CKD (OR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.01-3.06) were significant predictors of severe Covid-19 infection. Hyperlipidemia was found to be negatively associated with severe disease (OR, 0.54; 95% CI: 0.33-0.90). A predictive equation based on these variables demonstrated fair ability to discriminate severe vs non-severe outcomes using only this historical information (AUC: 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Severe Covid-19 illness can be predicted using data that could be obtained from a remote screening. With validation, this model could possibly be used for remote triage to prioritize evaluation based on susceptibility to severe disease while avoiding unnecessary waiting room exposure.
  • |*Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Case-Control Studies[MESH]
  • |Comorbidity[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]
  • |Risk Factors[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Tertiary Care Centers[MESH]
  • |Triage/methods/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]


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