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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Am+J+Emerg+Med 2021 ; 39 (ä): 143-145 Nephropedia Template TP
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Development and validation of a knowledge-driven risk calculator for critical illness in COVID-19 patients #MMPMID33039212
Cahan A; Gottesman T; Katz MT; Masad R; Azulay G; Dicker D; Zeidman A; Berkov E; Tadmor B; Lev S
Am J Emerg Med 2021[Jan]; 39 (ä): 143-145 PMID33039212show ga
Facing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, evidence to inform decision-making at all care levels is essential. Based on the results of a study by Petrilli et al., we have developed a calculator using patient data at admission to predict critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, hospice care, or death). We report a retrospective validation of the calculator on 145 consecutive patients admitted with COVID-19 to a single hospital in Israel. Despite considerable differences between the original and validation study populations, of 18 patients with critical illness, 17 were correctly identified (sensitivity: 94.4%, 95% CI, 72.7%-99.9%; specificity: 81.9%, 95% CI, 74.1%-88.2%). Of 127 patients with non-critical illness, 104 were correctly identified. Our results indicate that published knowledge can be reliably applied to assess patient risk, potentially reducing the cognitive burden on physicians, and helping policymakers better prepare for future needs.