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10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33024095      Nat+Commun 2020 ; 11 (1): 5006
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  • Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase #MMPMID33024095
  • Wang L; Didelot X; Yang J; Wong G; Shi Y; Liu W; Gao GF; Bi Y
  • Nat Commun 2020[Oct]; 11 (1): 5006 PMID33024095show ga
  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • |*Disease Outbreaks[MESH]
  • |Bayes Theorem[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus/classification/genetics[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Phylogeny[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]


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