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10.1371/journal.pone.0240153

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0240153
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33007054!7531857!33007054
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid33007054      PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (10): e0240153
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  • Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis #MMPMID33007054
  • Eshragh A; Alizamir S; Howley P; Stojanovski E
  • PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (10): e0240153 PMID33007054show ga
  • The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.
  • |*Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |Australia/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology[MESH]


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