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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 261.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Emerg+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 26 (12): 2844-2853 Nephropedia Template TP
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Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia #MMPMID32985971
Moss R; Wood J; Brown D; Shearer FM; Black AJ; Glass K; Cheng AC; McCaw JM; McVernon J
Emerg Infect Dis 2020[Dec]; 26 (12): 2844-2853 PMID32985971show ga
The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.
|Australia/epidemiology[MESH]
|COVID-19/epidemiology/*transmission[MESH]
|Contact Tracing[MESH]
|Critical Pathways/standards[MESH]
|Hospital Bed Capacity/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
|Humans[MESH]
|Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data[MESH]