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10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.001

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.001
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32984666      Infect+Dis+Model 2020 ; 5 (ä): 748-754
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  • Modeling Palestinian COVID-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases: A Comparative Study #MMPMID32984666
  • Dawoud I
  • Infect Dis Model 2020[]; 5 (ä): 748-754 PMID32984666show ga
  • COVID-19 is still a major pandemic threatening all the world. In Palestine, there were 26,764 COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases as of 27th August 2020. In this paper, two statistical approaches, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and k-th moving averages - ARIMA models are used for modeling the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine. The data was taken from World Health Organization (WHO) website for one hundred seventy-six (176) days, from March 5, 2020 through August 27, 2020. We identified the best models for the above mentioned approaches that are ARIMA (1,2,4) and 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average - ARIMA (2,2,3). Consequently, we recommended to use the 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average - ARIMA (2,2,3) model in order to forecast new values of the daily cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine. The forecast values are alarming, and giving the Palestinian government a good picture about the next number of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases to review her activities and interventions and to provide some robust structures and measures to avoid these challenges.
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