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10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110283 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110283 32982078!7505562!32982078     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Chaos+Solitons+Fractals 2020 ; 141 (ä): 110283 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32982078|t=2020. Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives |pdf=|usr=}}{{32982078}} gab.com Text Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives JO: Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32982078 #FOAvip In this work, a new compartmental mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed incorporating imperfect quarantine and disrespectful behavior of citizens towards lockdown policies, which are evident in most of the developing countries. An integer derivative model has been proposed initially and then the formula for calculating basic reproductive number, R0 of the model has been presented. Cameroon has been considered as a representative for the developing countries and the epidemic threshold, R0 has been estimated to be ~ 3.41 (95% CI:2.2 - 4.4) as of July 9, 2020. Using real data compiled by the Cameroonian government, model calibration has been performed through an optimization algorithm based on renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm. Based on our projection results, the probable peak date is estimated to be on August 1, 2020 with approximately 1073 (95% CI:714 - 1654) daily confirmed cases. The tally of cumulative infected cases could reach ~ 20, 100 (95% CI:17, 343 - 24, 584) cases by the end of August 2020. Later, global sensitivity analysis has been applied to quantify the most dominating model mechanisms that significantly affect the progression dynamics of COVID-19. Importantly, Caputo derivative concept has been performed to formulate a fractional model to gain a deeper insight into the probable peak dates and sizes in Cameroon. By showing the existence and uniqueness of solutions, a numerical scheme has been constructed using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. Numerical simulations have enlightened the fact that if the fractional order alpha is close to unity, then the solutions will converge to the integer model solutions, and the decrease of the fractional-order parameter (0 < alpha < 1) leads to the delaying of the epidemic peaks. Twit Text FOAVip Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives ????Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32982078 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32982078 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32982078}}</ref> Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives #MMPMID32982078 Nabi KN; Abboubakar H; Kumar P Chaos Solitons Fractals 2020[Dec]; 141 (ä): 110283 PMID32982078show ga In this work, a new compartmental mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed incorporating imperfect quarantine and disrespectful behavior of citizens towards lockdown policies, which are evident in most of the developing countries. An integer derivative model has been proposed initially and then the formula for calculating basic reproductive number, R0 of the model has been presented. Cameroon has been considered as a representative for the developing countries and the epidemic threshold, R0 has been estimated to be ~ 3.41 (95% CI:2.2 - 4.4) as of July 9, 2020. Using real data compiled by the Cameroonian government, model calibration has been performed through an optimization algorithm based on renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm. Based on our projection results, the probable peak date is estimated to be on August 1, 2020 with approximately 1073 (95% CI:714 - 1654) daily confirmed cases. The tally of cumulative infected cases could reach ~ 20, 100 (95% CI:17, 343 - 24, 584) cases by the end of August 2020. Later, global sensitivity analysis has been applied to quantify the most dominating model mechanisms that significantly affect the progression dynamics of COVID-19. Importantly, Caputo derivative concept has been performed to formulate a fractional model to gain a deeper insight into the probable peak dates and sizes in Cameroon. By showing the existence and uniqueness of solutions, a numerical scheme has been constructed using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. Numerical simulations have enlightened the fact that if the fractional order alpha is close to unity, then the solutions will converge to the integer model solutions, and the decrease of the fractional-order parameter (0 < alpha < 1) leads to the delaying of the epidemic peaks. äForecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fraction(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing