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10.1016/j.micinf.2020.09.006

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.micinf.2020.09.006
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32977019!7508051!32977019
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32977019      Microbes+Infect 2020 ; 22 (10): 611-616
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  • Low-impact social distancing interventions to mitigate local epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 #MMPMID32977019
  • Jackson ML
  • Microbes Infect 2020[Nov]; 22 (10): 611-616 PMID32977019show ga
  • Many jurisdictions implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. An agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions. Interventions considered included encouraging telecommuting, reducing contacts to high-risk persons, and reductions to contacts outside of the home, among others. Removing all existing interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47-49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy. Combining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system.
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence/*methods[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Early Medical Intervention/*methods[MESH]
  • |Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Masks/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |Nursing Homes/standards[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |Quarantine[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2/*isolation & purification/pathogenicity[MESH]
  • |Virulence[MESH]


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